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A new investigation of
long-term weather records suggests that the recent flooding in the south of
England could signal the onset of climate change. The research, from UWE
Bristol, Loughborough University and the University of East Anglia has produced
a new index of flooding trends called the Fluvial Flood Indices. This enables
widespread flooding and weather patterns to be viewed in the context of the
last 150 years, revealing that four of the six most severe flood episodes since
1871 have occurred in the last 30 years.
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The new index was developed
by Professor Rob Wilby from Loughborough University and Associate Professor
Nevil Quinn from UWE Bristol, and was published in the Journal of Hydrology
last year. With the collaboration of Dr. Colin Harpham from the University of
East Anglia, the index has been updated to cover the most recent flooding.
The indices match weather
patterns and river flow data collected over the last 60 years to reconstruct
the likelihood of widespread flooding in Britain back as far as the 1870s. The
index is broken down by British region and updated weekly from atmospheric
pressure data.
Professor Quinn, who is a
hydrologist and specialist in flood risk management, said, “One of the greatest
difficulties in flood estimation is that recorded flood data are rare — very
few stations were operating prior to 1950. The index is based on the
association between the atmospheric pressure patterns at the time and the
concurrent recorded flood events. Since we have a classification of atmospheric
pressure patterns called Lamb Weather Types going back to 1871 we can
contextualize floods in relation to a much longer period.”
The indices reveal that the
sequences of weather leading to the recent floods in southern England occur on
average once every 25 years. The worst flooding suggested by the series
happened in 1872, with later flood-rich episodes in the 1950s, 1980s and 2000s. Professor
Wilby said, “The extraordinary events in 1872 show the extent to which flood
severity varies from one decade to the next. This flooding was so significant
it was even captured in a painting by Monet. However, to experience
four of the six most severe episodes in the last 30 years is disconcerting.
Such a flood-rich period in the context of a 144-year record is very unusual
and linked to the large number of cyclones passing over the country.”
It is envisaged researchers
and agencies interested in tracking long-term changes in weather patterns
linked to widespread flooding could use the indices.
Read more at ENN affiliate
Click Green.
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